EIR Daily Alert Service, Monday, February 4, 2019
|MONDAY, FEBRUARY 4, 2019|
Volume 6, Number 24
EIR Daily Alert Service
P.O. Box 17390,
Washington, DC 20041-0390
- Zepp-LaRouche: End the Chicken Game, Promote Dialogue and Cooperation With Russia and China
- U.S. Suspends Participation in INF Treaty: Trump is Firm, ‘We Stand Ready To Engage Russia’
- Russia’s Foreign Minister Lavrov Tells Putin: ‘All in All, the Situation Is Quite Alarming’
- Chinese Foreign Ministry Statement Opposes U.S. Withdrawal From the INF Treaty
- Beijing Media Editorials Express Concern Over U.S. ‘Junking Global Arms Control’
- Nuclear Threat Initiative Leaders: ‘U.S. and Russia Are Sleepwalking Toward Nuclear Disaster’
- Neo-Cons’ “Humanitarian Corridors” for Venezuela Is Retread of Globalist ‘Right To Protect’
- In Spirited Interview With ‘Face the Nation,’ President Trump Slams the Endless Wars
- President Trump Exudes Confidence That U.S. and China Will Have a Trade Deal
- Central Banks May Be Turning Back Toward Quantitative Easing
- AMLO Anti-Drug Policy Still Being Fought; Mexico and U.S. Must Adopt LaRouche 1985 Plan
Feb. 3 (EIRNS)—The Russian government considers that the world strategic situation, in the aftermath of the U.S. withdrawal from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, is “all in all, quite alarming.” Those are the words used by Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in a three-way dialogue with President Vladimir Putin and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, which was prominently featured on the Kremlin’s website on Jan. 2. In that same exchange, Putin announced that Russia would respond “symmetrically” by also quitting the INF and developing its own intermediate-range missiles, as well as other weapons systems. The entire dialogue among the Russian leaders located the current crisis as part of a longer historical arc, beginning with the U.S. pull-out from the ABM treaty in 2002, during the George W. Bush presidency—which is precisely what triggered the Russian policy of developing weapons systems based on new physical principles, which President Putin described in his historic March 1, 2018 speech to the Federal Assembly.
Helga Zepp-LaRouche today commented that the world strategic situation is indeed “very, very serious,” and requires urgent action. Already in her Jan. 31 weekly webcast, delivered one day before the U.S. formally announced its withdrawal from the INF Treaty, Zepp-LaRouche was asked: “From your discussions with people, your experience, are there people in Russia and China who understand the possibility, or are aware of the possibility for this Four Power arrangement [among the U.S., Russia, China and India], and using that as the basis for a New Bretton Woods?” To which she responded:
“Well, I think this is a big question. Because you know, in general, I think the Chinese would—depending on how these trade negotiations today go with President Trump…. If that goes well, then I would say the Chinese in general tend to be more optimistic about changing the course of history.
“The Russians, in my experience, are very pessimistic. They look at the possible cancellation of the INF Treaty, they look at all the other very aggressive tones against Russia, and they think there is a very small chance, if any chance at all, that the United States will change for many years to come.
“Now, I don’t think that that is the final answer…. I think anybody in their right mind, who is not willing to risk the existence of the human species, should really promote dialogue and cooperation, rather than keeping this chicken game going, which could really blow up the whole human species.
“I think the Russians need to see some signs that Americans and Europeans are willing to depart from this insane confrontation course, to develop the hope that it can be changed. And that cannot come from Russia; it can only come from inside the West.”
Trump can help set things on the proper track by achieving a full economic cooperation package with China; by pursuing his successful negotiations with North Korea; and by pulling U.S. troops out of Syria and ending the era of Bush-Obama wars of aggression—just as Trump promised he would do throughout the presidential campaign. And we can help Trump do all of that by defeating the British-orchestrated coup d’état against his government.
But perhaps the most eloquent signal that the U.S. is adopting the proper course, would be for President Trump to finally exonerate Lyndon LaRouche, and proceed to implement his policies of a Four Power accord to organize a New Bretton Woods system to replace the dying British Empire.
STRATEGIC WAR DANGER
Feb. 1 (EIRNS)—The Trump Administration announced this morning, that it would be suspending U.S. participation in the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty beginning Feb. 2, sixty days after Secretary of State Mike Pompeo issued an ultimatum warning Moscow that the only way to prevent the collapse of the treaty would be for Russia to withdraw the 9M729 cruise missile from service and destroy it. A six-month period of withdrawal provided for by the treaty now begins. Pompeo issued a statement to reporters. The White House issued a Fact Sheet. President Donald Trump released his own statement.
The gist of all three statements is that Russia has not complied with the treaty; the U.S. will go ahead with new arms development; and then, if Russia complies, some new deal can be arranged. Polish Foreign Minister Jacek Czaputowicz has already welcomed the Trump Administration’s announcement. “We do not wish that [to deploy nuclear missiles in Poland] at all,” Czaputowicz told Germany’s Der Spiegel in an interview posted Feb. 1. “But it all depends on how Russia behaves in the future, whether it will continue its aggressive arms policy, and NATO must decide that as a community.” Support for the U.S. action is otherwise coming—at least lip service—from NATO and other quarters in Europe.
The White House Fact Sheet, distinct from Trump’s personal statement, is belligerent. “Enough is enough,” it states about Russia’s alleged non-compliance. “The United States has complied with the INF Treaty for more than 30 years, but we will not be held back while Russia cheats…. The United States will move forward with developing its own intermediate-range, conventionally armed, ground-launched missile system. In addition, China and Iran, which are not parties to the Treaty, each possess more than 1,000 INF Treaty-range missiles.”
The Fact Sheet states that allies are supporting the U.S. “at every step…. After close consultation with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and other allies in December 2018, President Trump gave Russia a 60-day opportunity to return to compliance. Russia has wasted that time, and refuses to even acknowledge its violation.”
The President’s personal three-paragraph statement is different, although it makes the same points that “Russia has violated the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty with impunity.” But then President Trump cracks the door open, by concluding: “We stand ready to engage with Russia on arms control negotiations that meet these criteria [effective, verifiable, enforceable], and, importantly, once that is done, develop, perhaps for the first time ever, an outstanding relationship on economy, trade, political, and military levels. This would be a fantastic thing for Russia and the United States, and would also be great for the world.”
Feb. 3 (EIRNS)—In an exchange among Russian President Vladimir Putin, Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, published on the Kremlin website over the weekend and in which Putin announced the adoption of symmetrical steps by Russia to answer the U.S. withdrawal from the INF Treaty, Lavrov presented the following evaluation to Putin:
“All in all, the situation is quite alarming. Let me reiterate that the decision taken by the United States on the INF Treaty is of course a matter of serious concern for the entire world, especially for Europe. Nevertheless, the Europeans followed in the footsteps of the United States with all NATO members speaking out in explicit support of the position adopted by the United States to refrain from any discussions on mutual concerns. All we hear are groundless ultimatums requiring us to take unilateral measures without any evidence to support unfounded accusations.”
Lavrov further stated that the U.S. itself had violated the INF Treaty by the deployment of its Aegis Ashore system in 2014. “This is an outright violation of the Treaty. Launchers of this kind have already been deployed in Romania, and preparations are underway to deploy them in Poland, as well as Japan…. There is no doubt that these developments make things worse overall in the sphere of nuclear disarmament and strategic stability. It all started with the 1972 Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, when the U.S. decided to withdraw from it in 2002, as you know all too well.”
After listening to the reports by Lavrov and Shoigu, Putin announced that Russia would adopt a symmetrical response of withdrawal from the INF and engaging in R&D of its own intermediate range systems, and then declared: “At the same time, I would like to draw your attention to the fact that we must not and will not let ourselves be drawn into an expensive arms race.”
Putin also announced that there would be a change implemented at the review held every six months “of the state defense order with the commanders of the Armed Forces and the defense sector representatives. Starting this year, I propose modifying this format. I want to see how efforts to deploy our systems are progressing. This refers to the Kinzhal hypersonic air-launched ballistic missile, the Peresvet combat laser weapon, which has already been delivered to the army, and the Avangard system, which is now in serial production, having completed the test phase. I want to see how the production of the Sarmat missile is advancing alongside preparations for placing it on combat duty. Several days ago, you reported to me on the completion of a key stage in testing the Poseidon multipurpose strategic unmanned underwater vehicle. We have to look at how these efforts are advancing. We are aware of the plans by some countries to deploy weapons in outer space. I want to hear a report on how this threat can be neutralized.”
Feb. 3 (EIRNS)—China’s Foreign Ministry spokesman Geng Shuang issued a statement Feb. 2 announcing that “China opposes the United States move to denounce the [INF] treaty and urges the U.S. and Russia to properly settle the differences through an efficient dialogue. The U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Treaty may have a whole number of implications, China will closely monitor the developments. As an important bilateral treaty in arms control and disarmament, the treaty is of great significance for smoothing relationships between major powers, promoting international and regional peace, and safeguarding global strategic balance and stability.”
Xinhua reported that Geng was asked about China’s stance on the negotiation of a new multilateral treaty on arms control, that might include China. The spokesman said that China is opposed to the multilateralization of the treaty, according to Xinhua. “Multilateralization of the treaty involves a series of political, military and legal issues that are complicated, and many countries are quite concerned, Geng said. ‘The top priority is to safeguard and implement the existing treaty well, rather than drafting a new one to replace the old one,’ he said.”
Feb. 3 (EIRNS)—Xinhua published an editorial on Feb. 2 headlined “Washington’s Withdrawal from INF Treaty Might Open Pandora’s Box,” which concluded by warning that “Now that Washington has decided to demolish the treaty, its stubbornness would ruin the efforts that the international community has made over the years. It needs to join nations of the world to keep Pandora’s box sealed.”
Global Times ran an editorial “Junking INF Will Destroy Global Arms Control,” which stated: “Scrapping the treaty would be the beginning of the collapse of the global arms control system. It’s highly likely a new arms race will start…. Although the U.S. in the Reagan era launched the Strategic Defense Initiative, nicknamed ‘Star Wars,’ it accepted the concept of security based on a balance of power. But today the U.S. wants an overwhelming advantage and absolute security. It even cannot accept other countries which want to strengthen their strategic defense.”
This comment by Global Times shows a far better understanding of the original SDI, although not yet an adequate one, than has come from Russian sources over recent weeks, which have mistakenly equated the current policy with Reagan’s SDI. The SDI, as originally designed by Lyndon LaRouche and adopted by President Reagan, was premised on cooperation with Russia on a program based on new physical principles, and thus would have introduced an entirely new era of Mutually Assured Survival.
Feb. 3 (EIRNS)—Former Sen. Sam Nunn and former Energy Secretary Ernest J. Moniz (2013-17), who are the co-chairmen of the Nuclear Threat Initiative, have a very strong piece that appears on Feb. 1 Politico Magazine, entitled “The U.S. and Russia Are Sleepwalking Toward Nuclear Disaster.” They state “re-engagement with Russia is too important to wait for the Mueller probe to end. That means it’s time for Congress to take the lead,” they argue, steering clear of the entire reason for the Mueller coup operation against President Donald Trump.
At the outset, they frame the context and the need for the INF Treaty, and their major concern that it would be abandoned: “Friday morning’s announcement by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that America will withdraw from the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty because of Russian violations is the latest wake-up call that relations between the world’s nuclear superpowers are dangerously off the rails.
“The fear of nuclear confrontation was once omnipresent in Washington and Moscow. National leaders recognized the real risk that a military conflict could quickly emerge and escalate, and that they would be forced to calculate in minutes whether survival required ‘going nuclear first,’ with catastrophic consequences.
“The grim horror of this reality was understood. It provided the foundation of decades of nuclear dialogue between the U.S. and Russia, including a mutual recognition of vital interests, red lines and methods to reduce the chance that accidents or miscalculation would lead to conflict.”
The authors state many of the discussion and warning mechanisms have atrophied; that the Mueller investigation and other things have forced a boxed-in situation in which “Donald Trump’s administration is imperiled if it touches anything related to Russia.”
Further, Nunn and Moniz state that “it’s not just the means of managing risk that have withered; it’s the will,” including that “cyberattacks could target nuclear warning and command-and-control systems is ever increasing…. Meanwhile, U.S. and Russian military forces are again operating in close proximity, with increased chances that an inadvertent collision—or deliberate act of aggression, accident, or a terrible miscalculation—could lead to the fatal use of nuclear weapons for the first time in nearly 75 years.”
Feb. 1 (EIRNS)—Juan Guaidó, the self-proclaimed interim president of Venezuela, has proposed to organize a “humanitarian caravan” of medical and other supplies, to send into Venezuela with the help of neighboring countries, Associated Press reported Jan. 31. Guaidó insisted that this doesn’t mean taking aid from the United States, as “in the next few days, we will announce a global coalition to send aid to Venezuela.”
This provocative proposal has nothing to do with providing much-needed assistance, however. It is the same globalist “right to protect” scheme imposed under the Obama Administration, using humanitarian aid as a pretext for intervening into sovereign nations, as was done against Libya and Syria. The plan is being billed as a way to “test” the Venezuelan military, which thus far is backing President Nicolas Maduro. Maduro has denounced the “caravan” operation as a crude attempt to introduce foreign troops into the country.
Iran-Contra felon Elliott Abrams, now the State Department special representative for Venezuela, and his fellow neo-con Mauricio Claver-Carone, Western Hemisphere Director at the National Security Council, are aggressively promoting the scheme, even suggesting that military troops could be used to open up a “humanitarian corridor” in Venezuela. Asked in a Jan. 30 interview with Spain’s EFE news service whether troops might be used, Claver-Carone coyly replied that “there are many options along these lines on the table; we’re exploring them all.”
Claver-Carone said that the Trump Administration “is absolutely” considering opening up a humanitarian corridor. Aid will reportedly be transported by vehicles arriving at several border points, after aid is shipped into “friendly ports” in neighboring countries, according to AP. Abrams said Jan. 30, reported the daily El Impulso on Jan. 31, that humanitarian aid would arrive in Venezuelan by sea, either through Colombia or Brazil. He said the U.S. administration is discussing options with both nations.
U.S. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC
Feb. 3 (EIRNS)—President Donald Trump gave an interview on Feb. 1 to CBS News’ “Face the Nation” host Margaret Brennan, broadcast on Feb. 3. Covering the leading issues, President Trump was feisty, especially on his determination to end all the endless wars, and his progress in his discussion and policy-setting with North Korean Chairman Kim Jong Un and China’s President Xi Jinping.
Brennan asked Trump about the Worldwide Threat Assessment on which the U.S. intelligence directors testified on Capitol Hill this past week, saying, “you called them naïve and told them to go back to school.”
President Trump responded: “When I took over Syria it was infested with ISIS. It was all over the place. And now you have very little ISIS and you have the caliphate almost knocked out. We will be announcing in the not-too-distant future 100 percent of the caliphate which is the area—the land— … 100 [percent]. We’re at 99 percent right now, we’ll be at 100…. At the same time, at a certain point, we want to bring our people back home. If you look at Afghanistan …, very soon we’ll be going into our 19th year, spending $50 billion a year. Now if you go back and look at any of my campaign speeches or rallies, I talked about it all the time.”
He continued: “We were supposed to be in Syria for four months. We’ve been there for years. We have been in Afghanistan for 19 years. We got to get out of these endless wars and bring our folks back home…. We’re spending more money than anybody’s ever spent in history, by a lot. We spent, over the last five years, close to $50 billion a year in Afghanistan. That’s more than most countries spend for everything, including education, medical, and everything else, other than a few countries.”
But Brennan countered that “The Senate Republicans voted, the vast majority of them said that they don’t support what you’re doing. That what you’re doing risks national intelligence by a precipitous withdrawal from Syria and Afghanistan.” Trump replied: “I ran against 17 Republicans. This was a big part of what I was saying, and I won very easily. I think the people out in the world—I think people in our country agree. We’ve been fighting for 19 years. … precipitously? We’ve been there for 19 years.”
Trump said further that he had gone to Walter Reed Hospital: “I see what happens to people. I see [soldiers] with no legs and no arms. And I’ve seen also what happens to them up here [mentally] because they’re in this situation, and they come back and they are totally different people—where the wives and the fathers and the mothers say, ‘What has happened to my son? What has happened, in some cases, to my daughter?’ It’s a terrible thing. We’ve been there close to 19 years. And it’s time. And we’ll see what happens with the Taliban. They want peace. They’re tired. Everybody’s tired. … I don’t like endless wars. What we’re doing, is [we’ve] got to stop at some point.” He further asserted that going into Iraq was “one of the greatest mistakes we’ve ever made.”
At the end of the 15-minute interview, Trump replied to a question about China: “I can tell you this, no two leaders of this country and China have ever been closer than I am with President Xi [Jinping]. We have a good chance to make a deal. I don’t know that we’re going to make one, but we have a good chance.”
THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER
Feb. 1 (EIRNS)—President Donald Trump was almost exuberant in the meeting yesterday with China’s Vice Premier Liu He over the possibility of a trade deal between the U.S. and China before the end of next month. “It will be, by far, if it happens, the biggest deal ever made—not only the biggest trade deal ever made. It will be the biggest trade deal by far, but it’ll also be the biggest deal ever made. The two largest countries doing a trade deal. There won’t be anything that will match that.”
He started the meeting by having Liu He read the letter he had brought from President Xi Jinping. Vice Premier Liu also extended President Xi’s greetings and praised President Trump for his success with the U.S. economy. Liu He also expressed great optimism about the possibility of a trade deal by the time the two Presidents meet next month.
U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin will be traveling to Beijing even before the official end of the Spring Festival in order to work out the kinks that are left in the negotiation.
China has promised to buy 5 million tons of soybeans from the U.S. Trump was euphoric, responding, “That’s going to make our farmers very happy. “That’s a lot of soybeans. That’s really nice.” Vice Premier Liu replied, “Chinese people like U.S. farmers very much.”
Trump also highly praised Vice Premier Liu. “I just want to say the Vice Premier is a friend of mine. He has become—he is truly one of the most respected men in Asia, one of the most respected men in all of China, and, frankly, one of the most respected men anywhere in the world. And it’s a great honor to have you with us.”
The President later expanded on the U.S.-China relationship: “The relationship is very, very good between China and the United States. And the personal relationships are very good, with the Vice Premier, with myself and President Xi, and with our representatives. It’s been very, very good. And, you know, you read a lot of things. Sometimes you hear good, sometimes you don’t hear good. But I will say that I think that the relationship that we have right now with China has never been so advanced. I don’t think it’s ever been better.”
COLLAPSING WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM
Feb. 2 (EIRNS)—The idea that Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has just “capitulated to the stock market” or has “capitulated to President Trump,” ignores several facts. Federal Reserve has plenty of data on what is happening in the U.S. economy, particularly the corporate debt and real estate sectors; individual Fed governors have been calling, in “Fed speak,” for a halt in rate increases for some time; and long-term interest rates in the U.S. economy—not set by the Fed—have fallen by nearly 0.75% since Dec. 1.In addition, the draw down of the Fed’s QE balance sheet, while said to remain on “autopilot,” has in fact slowed down very significantly. It now appears, according to the New York Federal Reserve Bank’s policy in conducting this drawdown, that the Federal Reserve will retain a balance sheet of more than $3 trillion, compared to a maximum of $800 billion before the 2007-08 crash.At the same time most of Europe is heading into recession, with Italy’s economy already officially there, and the European Central Bank is continuing to reinvest its QE proceeds into QE. The Bank of England has put off for years, the start of its sell-off of the assets it bought from banks under quantitative easing.The Bank of Japan is continuing all aspects of its QE program.
AMLO Anti-Drug Policy Still Being Fought; Mexico and U.S. Must Adopt LaRouche 1985 Plan
Feb. 3 (EIRNS)—In his first two months in office, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) has noticeably refused to move forward with the repeated calls by his own Interior Minister Olga Sanchez, a George Soros groupie, to legalize both marijuana and opium in the country, and her demand to negotiate a “peace agreement” with the drug cartels. That is partly due to the strong public opposition to drug legalization coming from the Trump White House. López Obrador has not said a word on the matter since assuming office, although during the campaign he favorably toyed with the idea.However, on Jan. 30 López Obrador did respond to a question from a journalist about whether Mexico had captured any top crime bosses, by saying: “We are no longer at war. We haven’t detained any cartel leaders because that’s not our principal function. The government’s foremost responsibility is to ensure public security; our strategy no longer includes capturing drug lords. There is officially no more war. We want peace, and we are going to achieve peace.” How this battle inside Mexico shapes up will depend heavily on steps taken in the United States in the direction of Lyndon LaRouche’s groundbreaking 1985 fifteen-point plan for the war on drugs, in which LaRouche stated that “borders among the allied nations, and borders with other nations, must be virtually hermetically sealed against drug-traffic across borders.” LaRouche emphasized there what was also the central thesis of the 1978 Dope, Inc. study that he commissioned:“A system of total regulation of financial institutions, to the effect of detecting deposits, outbound transfers, and inbound transfers of funds, which might be reasonably suspected of being funds secured from drug-trafficking, must be established and maintained. Special attention should be concentrated on those banks, insurance enterprises, and other business institutions which are in fact elements of an international financial cartel coordinating the flow of hundreds of billions annually of revenues from the international drug-traffic.”In his 15-point war plan, LaRouche also emphasized the importance of advanced technologies to detect and destroy drug crops, processing labs, and distribution networks. The continuing relevance of that approach was underscored by last week’s huge drug bust of 254 pounds of fentanyl hidden in a truck attempting to cross the border at the Nogales, Arizona checkpoint, which was selected by agents for secondary checking, where drug-sniffing dogs found the deadly contraband. As the Drug Enforcement Agency itself reported in their 2018 National Drug Assessment: “The most common method employed by these TCOs [Transnational Criminal Organizations] involves transporting illicit drugs through U.S. POEs [Ports of Entry] in passenger vehicles with concealed compartments or commingled with legitimate goods on tractor trailers.” According to Homeland Security’s U.S. Customs and Border Protection, they conduct “risk-based” screening only—i.e., they are able to screen only a small fraction of the 25 million containers entering the country yearly.
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