WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 1, 2020

Volume 7, Number 1

EIR Daily Alert Service

P.O. Box 17390, Washington, DC 20041-0390

• Happy New Year! 2020: Will We Head Toward War, Or Put the World in Order?
• President Xi Jinping Greets Chinese Citizens, ‘2020 Will Be a Year of Milestone Significance’
• Ibero-American Experts See an Optimistic 2020 Through the Belt and Road Initiative
• Putin to Trump for New Year: Russia and U.S. Are Historically Responsible for Global Security
• President Trump Announces He Will Go to China for Phase Two of U.S.-China Trade Talks
• Biden Joins Pope Francies in Backing Malthusian ‘Climate Change’ Lie
• Protesters Attack U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, After U.S. Strikes Against Iraqi Militia
• Iraqi Anger at U.S. Strikes Prompts Questions About Keeping U.S. Military in Iraq
• Lavrov Explains Russia’s Libya Policy: Immediate Ceasefire, No Preconditions, Nix on No Fly Zone
• Tremonti Asserts Italy Has Been Under an ECB-Run Coup Since 2011
• Ukraine and Russia Agree on Five-Year Deal for Gas Transit to Europe
• Lyndon LaRouche’s Vision From a Generation Ago-A World Silk Road Is the ‘Wave of the Future’

EDITORIAL

Happy New Year! 2020: Will We Head Toward War, Or Put the World in Order?

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—“I think that people at the beginning of the year … always start with deeper thoughts than usual,” was the opening reflection by Helga Zepp-LaRouche today, speaking on the last Schiller Institute weekly webcast of the old year. “Where should this year go?” she asked. “What should be accomplished? What are the dangers?  And I think President Xi Jinping, in his New Year’s speech of today, actually, said that the coming year will be a milestone year.

She continued: “And I would even take it a step further: I say, that everything will depend on what will happen with the impeachment process in the United States, which is around the Russia and China question of the relations between the United States and these two countries; will the crash happen?  Can we make a reform in time? And by the end of this year, I think a lot of strategic decisions will have been made which will determine if the world is on a way of a big confrontation and possible war, or if we can use this coming year to put the world into order and establish a completely new set of international relations.

“Now, it is very clear that the three Presidents, Trump, Putin and Xi Jinping, are working in their own way to establish a good relation among these three countries, and I think this is actually the most important strategic question, because once you have an accord among these three countries, I think every other problem in the world can be tackled—not solved immediately, and it’s not overcoming all difficulties, but you have the precondition that you can solve the strategic questions.”

So far there have been baby steps, limited but significant initiatives, toward collaborative leadership. For example, Presidents Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin had a useful telephone call on Dec. 29, in which Putin thanked Trump for the U.S. providing the intelligence enabling Russia to head off a terrorist attack in St. Petersburg during this holiday period. In Ukraine, also on Dec. 29, the exchange of prisoners between the Kiev government and the Donbas self-proclaimed republics marks some steps in the right direction. Yesterday, Russia and Ukraine made an agreement for the five-year continuation of uninterrupted gas transit through Ukraine, from Russia to Europe, as highlighted today by the two Presidents in a New Year’s phone call.

But, Zepp-LaRouche pointed to the important events in the coming months, that can be the occasions to truly deepen collaboration. “I think the really big question which is coming up in April and May is the 75th anniversary of the defeat of Nazism; and there, you have naturally, the big event, the 75th anniversary celebration on May 9 in Moscow, to which Putin repeatedly invited President Trump, and Trump basically expressed great interest to go there, even if details have not been decided.”

Today, in Putin’s message of New Year’s Greetings to President Trump, Putin reiterated the invitation for Trump to come to Russia in May for the 75th anniversary commemoration of victory over fascism in the Great Patriotic War. In reporting on Putin’s message, the Kremlin statement today said that, “Putin noted that Russia and the U.S. were historically responsible for ensuring global security and stability, and that Moscow speaks in favor of normalizing bilateral relations and establishing an equal dialogue based on the mutual respect of interests.”

Regarding China, President Trump himself today announced via Twitter that he plans to go to China once Phase Two of the U.S.-China trade talks commences. He said that Jan. 15 is the date he expects to sign Phase One of the trade agreement, with high-level Chinese officials at the White House. Then the Phase Two negotiations can start.

The potential represented by these gestures is anathema to the geopoliticians and war-hawks, centered in the networks of the dying British Empire, that are actively working to foment Cold War confrontation between the U.S. and China and Russia. By their imperial nature, this is how they seek to remain in control. The Economist of London in the past week, came out with an actual scenario for how to thwart China, and bring Trump down, by whipping up his base against China during the election year.

Of course, this war-hawk game plan need not prevail. Zepp-LaRouche described it in some detail as an “evil, geopolitical design,” but, she stressed, “I don’t think it will function.” People should understand what we’re up against, in order to defeat it, and make way for a new order.

In particular, much depends on success in the United States to bust up the coup operation being perpetrated against the Presidency. Zepp-LaRouche stressed, “We really are in a run against time, and it’s very difficult to say how this will end up. If Trump wins, and if the investigations [by, for example, Attorney General Barr and U.S. Attorney John Durham, into the wrongdoings of the FBI, CIA and British networks] all proceed, a lot of people could go to jail.”

It is no time to be complacent. Happy New Year!
 

• Note to Subscribers: EIR Daily Alert will not be published on Jan. 2, to allow staff to take New Year’s Day off.

THE NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER

President Xi Jinping Greets Chinese Citizens, ‘2020 Will Be a Year of Milestone Significance’

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—President Xi Jinping gave his New Year’s Greeting to the nation today, televised and now available in many languages. He reviewed China’s accomplishments of the past year, including landing on the far side of the Moon, successfully launching Long March-5 Y3, which will be instrumental in China’s Moon and Mars programs, and the successful commercial application of 5G. He also recalled the many places he had visited in China during the year to see the progress that people were making in various locales. He said, “The most memorable moment of 2019 was the celebrations for the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China…. Tiananmen Square was turned into a sea of happiness.”

Xi said, “2020 will be a year of milestone significance. We will finish building a moderately prosperous society in all respects and realize the first centenary goal. 2020 will also be a year of decisive victory for the elimination of poverty.

“The bugle has sounded. We shall all of one heart ‘add oil.’ The greater the difficulties, the further we advance, strengthening our weak links even more and laying a more solid foundation to win the hard battle against poverty with determination, to lift all impoverished rural residents and counties out of poverty by current standards.” He reported that “About 340 impoverished counties and more than 10 million people have been lifted out of poverty” over the last year.

He spoke of much else, including reiterating the principle of “One Country, Two Systems” being “fully applicable, achievable, and popular,” as shown in Macao. “In recent months, our hearts have been concerned about the situation in Hong Kong. Without a harmonious and stable environment, how can people live in peace and enjoy their work! I sincerely wish Hong Kong well….”

Above all specifics, and acknowledging the difficult international situation, Xi spoke of the direction for mankind. “Human history, like a river, runs forever, witnessing both peaceful moments and great disturbances. We are not afraid of storms and dangers and barriers. China is determined to walk along the road of peaceful development and will resolutely safeguard world peace and promote common development….”

He ended, “Let’s seize the day and live it to the fullest; and greet the arrival of the year 2020 together. I wish you all a happy new year!

(The full text of his speech, strongly recommended by Helga Zepp-LaRouche in today’s webcast, is available from CGTN America.)

Ibero-American Experts See an Optimistic 2020 Through the Belt and Road Initiative

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—Several Ibero-American China experts and watchers, in year-end interviews with Xinhua, see a hopeful future for the region in 2020 through expansion of the Belt and Road Initiative. Experts from Cuba, Colombia, Chile and Brazil pointed to China’s emphasis on mutual respect and non-intervention as the basis for expanded cooperation.

Juan Angel Cordero, who runs Cuba’s International Policy Research Center (CIPE), said that he sees China having a much more active role in the region’s economic transformation, but also advancing in the area of technological cooperation. “The key element in 2019 was China’s invitation to keep expanding the Belt and Road project to Latin America, which will deepen in 2020,” he said.

Colombian journalist and economist Enrique Posada told Xinhua he’s confident that “the Belt and Road Initiative will have a positive impact on China-Latin American relations over the next decade.” As director of the Asia-Pacific Observatory and Confucius Institute at the Jorge Tadeo Lozano University, Posada told Xinhua “I see the Belt and Road as a megaproject of tremendous reach; as President Xi Jinping says, ‘Latin America is the natural extension of the Silk Road.’ ”

University of Chile political analyst Guillermo Holzmann stressed that China-Latin America relations are based on pragmatism, in which “win-win” becomes a reality for both parties. China doesn’t try to impose a model, he said, but is rather primarily focused on environment, fighting corruption and industrialization. There’s no pressure, no interference—only “establishing a friendly environment to advance in areas in which China is interested—consolidating its plans for industrialization by 2025 and the Belt and Road by 2030.” Brazilian analyst Elias Jabbour of the Rio de Janeiro State University concludes, “China has the economic and financial conditions to bring prosperity to Latin America. China is without a doubt, the motor of the world economy.”

U.S. POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC

Putin to Trump for New Year: Russia and U.S. Are Historically Responsible for Global Security

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—On Dec. 30 Russian President Vladimir Putin sent U.S. President Donald Trump a New Year’s message, extending season’s greetings and confirming the invitation for Trump to attend the 75th anniversary celebrations in May 2020 of the victory over fascism in the Great Patriotic War. Putin also said that the U.S. and Russia are responsible for maintaining world security.

TASS reports, the Kremlin release on the message yesterday states: “Putin noted that Russia and the U.S. were historically responsible for ensuring global security and stability and that Moscow speaks in favor of normalizing bilateral relations and establishing an equal dialogue based on the mutual respect of interests. The President of Russia also reaffirmed his invitation to Donald Trump to visit Moscow to take part in the celebrations of the 75th anniversary of Victory in the Great Patriotic War.”

In further news surrounding Russia-U.S. relations, yesterday Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov briefed the media that the information that the U.S. provided to Russia regarding planned terrorist attacks, was very important. He said that the information was transmitted to Russia via intelligence service channels, which was followed by a report to President Putin. Given the successful detention of the two suspects, Peskov stated, it was “more than obvious evidence” of how productive such contacts can be.

Trump similarly tweeted about his phone call with Putin: “President Putin of Russia called to thank me and the U.S. for informing them of a planned terrorist attack in the very beautiful city of Saint Petersburg. They were able to quickly apprehend the suspects, with many lives being saved. Great & important coordination!”

Peskov also told media yesterday that the U.S. did not inform Russia about its airstrikes against targets in Syria and Iraq on Dec. 29. Peskov remarked on the U.S. strikes, that “any actions aimed at eliminating terrorists are assessed positively. On the other hand, any actions that lead to the destabilization of the situation can be assessed only negatively. Such criteria are applied each time.”

President Trump Announces He Will Go to China for Phase Two of U.S.-China Trade Talks

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—U.S. President Donald Trump revealed today that he plans to go to Beijing when Phase Two of the trade talks between the United States and China commences, which he announced in a tweet today: “I will be signing our very large and comprehensive Phase One Trade Deal with China on January 15. The ceremony will take place at the White House. High level representatives of China will be present. At a later date I will be going to Beijing where talks will begin on Phase Two!”

Biden Joins Pope Francis in Backing Malthusian ‘Climate Change’ Lie

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—Presidential candidate Joe Biden has apparently given up on his middle of the road (‘possum) position and gone all the way on climate change.  At a campaign event in Peterborough, New Hampshire yesterday, Biden pledged to eliminate all fossil fuel use by 2030.  “We have to set sort of guide rails down now,” he said, “so between the years 2021 and 2030, it’s irreversible … the path we set ourselves on. And one of which is doing away with any substance for fossil fuels.”  To enforce this on executives of energy companies, he threatened, “When they don’t want to deliver, put them in jail. I’m not joking about this.” Which left some wondering, whether he had forgotten that his son Hunter, whom he has gone out of his way to defend against corruption charges, had been an oil company executive himself.

Biden, who claims to be a practicing Catholic, although a number of parishes have banned him from receiving communion due to his support for abortion, points to his faith as the basis for his commitment to a new Dark Age. On his campaign website, he cites Pope Francis’ encyclical Laudato Si’ (largely written by Malthusian John Schellnhuber, CBE) for instructing him on his approach to climate change.  Given the massive reduction in energy availability that his policy demands, his pledge to “create 10 million good-paying jobs in the United States” with “every dollar spent towards rebuilding infrastructure … used to prevent, reduce, and withstand a changing climate” is as credible as fairy dust.

STRATEGIC WAR DANGER

Protesters Attack U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, after U.S. Strikes against Iraqi Militia

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—This morning in Baghdad, following a funeral procession there for the 25 Kataeb Hezbollah militiamen who were killed in the Dec. 29 U.S. airstrikes, protesters turned to the U.S. Embassy, where they breached the walls, got inside the compound and set fire to a reception area, with Iraqi security forces mainly looking on. President Donald Trump tweeted this morning, after first word of the attack, “Iran killed an American contractor, wounding many. We strongly responded, and always will. Now Iran is orchestrating an attack on the U.S. Embassy in Iraq. They will be held fully responsible. In addition, we expect Iraq to use its forces to protect the Embassy, and so notified!”

Later, Trump tweeted an update that security was restored. “The U.S. Embassy in Iraq is, & has been for hours, SAFE! many of our great Warfighters, together with the most lethal military equipment in the world, was immediately rushed to the site. Thank you to the President & Prime Minister of Iraq for their rapid response upon request. Iran will be held fully responsible for lives lost, or damage incurred, at any of our facilities. They will pay a very BIG PRICE! This is not a warning, it is a Threat. Happy new Year!”

News reports later in the day indicated that 100 Marines, already in the theater, had been dispatched to Baghdad to beef up security at the embassy. In the midst of the attack, Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi had demanded that the protesters leave the compound “immediately.” He stated, “We recall that any aggression or harassment of foreign embassies will be firmly prohibited by the security forces,” according to news reports.

The immediate background is that on Dec. 29 the U.S. conducted five strikes against bases of the Kataeb Hezbollah militia. The U.S. strikes were in retaliation for a rocket attack on a base in Kirkuk housing U.S. troops, which killed an American contractor, wounded four U.S. troops and destroyed an ammunition facility.

The funeral march and the attack on the U.S. Embassy were openly led by the top officials of the Popular Mobilization Units (PMUs), also known as the Hashd al Shaabi, the Shi’ite militias which includes Kataeb Hezbollah. These included PMU chief Hadi al-Amiri and National Security Adviser Falih al-Fayaddh. Another one was Qais al-Khazali, leader of the Iran-backed Asaib Ahl al-Haq militia. Khazali told Reuters, “Americans are unwanted in Iraq. They are a source of evil and we want them to leave.” Khazali, Reuters says, is one of the most feared and respected Shi’ite militia leaders in Iraq, and one of Iran’s most important allies.

Iraq Interior Minister Yassine al-Yasseri also appeared outside the embassy at one point and walked around to inspect the scene. He told Associated Press that Prime Minister Abdul Mahdi had warned that the U.S. strikes on the Shi’ite militiamen would have serious consequences. “This is one of the implications,” al-Yasseri said. “This is a problem and is embarrassing to the government.”

Iraqi Anger at U.S. Strikes Prompts Questions about Keeping U.S. Military in Iraq

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—There are reportedly 5,200 U.S. troops in Iraq. The Dec. 29 U.S. air strikes targeting an Iraqi Shi’ite militia group, which the U.S. blames for attacks on bases where Americans are housed, have prompted angry denunciations from across the Iraqi political spectrum and are raising questions about the U.S. military staying there.

The Iraqi government, despite being in a state of near paralysis because of the political crisis that has seized it for weeks, managed to issue statements of condemnation. “The Iraqi government condemns this act and considers it a violation of its sovereignty and a grave violation of the coalition forces’ rules of action, including the American forces, by carrying out operations without the approval of the Iraqi government,” read a statement issued by Prime Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi on Dec. 30. Abdul Mahdi also said that his government may review its relations with the U.S.-backed Global Coalition against Islamic State which has provided military support to Iraq against ISIS since 2014.

Dozens of members of the Iraqi parliament have also called on the government to review the agreement allowing the deployment of U.S. soldiers in the country, saying the strikes amount to a violation that renders the pact obsolete. Various maneuvers are in motion among the differing groups.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, the top Shi’ite religious figure in Iraq issued a statement condemning the strikes. It “emphasizes the need to respect the sovereignty of Iraq and prevent its violation under the pretext of responding to illegal practices by some parties.”

Lavrov Explains Russia’s Libya Policy: Immediate Ceasefire, No Preconditions, Nix on No Fly Zone

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov laid out Russia’s policy on Libya at a press conference on Dec. 31. He called for a ceasefire between the conflicting parties, with no preconditions and no establishment of a no fly zone. “I believe that a ceasefire is the main condition for starting a political dialogue. Moreover, such a ceasefire must occur without any prior requirements. It is in the interests of the Libyan people to end the fighting, declare an indefinite ceasefire and start a dialogue aimed at working out such agreements that will be implemented,” he said.

He said agreements that “were offered from outside,” including at conferences in France, Italy and the United Arab Emirates, did not work. “Now there is a lot of talk about preparations for a conference in Berlin. All this will maintain the current unclear situation, if the parties do not agree very specifically on how to ensure that all political, clan and ethnic interests in Libya are taken into account.”

Lavrov poured cold water on talk of a no fly zone being declared over Libya, saying idea has an obvious negative connotation, since the problem began in the first place with the Anglo-French and U.S. no fly zone. “It is better to make sure that all international players, without exception, influence the Libyan sides in one direction—to immediately stop fighting, declare an indefinite ceasefire and negotiate among themselves, and to agree so that then all this is carried out. And of course, the role of the UN Security Council in securing such final international agreements is absolutely essential here.”

COLLAPSING WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM

Tremonti Asserts Italy Has Been under an ECB-Run Coup Since 2011

Dec. 31  (EIRNS)—In a letter to the editor of Il Sole 24 Ore on Dec. 27, former Italian Economy Minister Giulio Tremonti reconstructs how Italy has been under an ECB- directed coup d’état since 2011, which has included, among other things, blackmail to force Italy to join the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) in the first place, and to implement an automatic VAT tax increase provision if deficit targets are not met in the annual budget.

In old days, “coups were made with the crack of firearms, with guns in buildings, later also with tanks in the squares, in more modern times they are done with the crack of the spreads” Tremonti wrote. (The spread is the difference between sovereign yields and a benchmark; in the EU the benchmark is German bonds.)

In May 2011, then Bank of Italy Governor Draghi had judged that the Italian government debt was sustainable (“The management of the public budget has been prudent … the corrections necessary in Italy are lower than those necessary in the other countries of the European Union”) and the German government had approved it.

Suddenly, on Aug. 4, 2011 the same Mario Draghi signed a letter together with outgoing ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet (whom he would replace at the ECB), “that if it had not been applied (by the following Monday) it would have caused the default of Italian public securities,” Under blackmail, “Italy was forced to take measures that anticipated balancing the budget for a whole year.”

Such “European pressure” was exerted “in reality to force Italy to accept a giant funding of the so-called ‘state safety net’ [ESM] which should have been used not to bail out Greece, but to bail out German and French banks exposed to risk from Greece.” By the way, Tremonti argues, this precedent motivates the opposition to the “extension of the ESM function to bail out so-called systemic banks.”

In order to meet the ECB diktat, the Italian government promised that if deficit targets were not met, an increase in the VAT would automatically be implemented. The government of Prime Minister Mario Monti institutionalized it in state law.

“What is tragic is that since then, Italy has increasingly lost shares of sovereignty. And maybe we should (at least could) start reflecting, in sight of the roots of our ‘sovereignism’ and of a different idea of Europe,” Tremonti concludes.

SCIENCE AND INFRASTRUCTURE

Ukraine and Russia Agree on Five-Year Deal for Gas Transit to Europe

Dec. 31 (EIRNS)—Russia’s state-owned energy corporation Gazprom, and Ukraine’s Naftogaz have announced the finalization of a five-year agreement to transfer Russian liquefied natural gas through Ukraine to Europe, over the objections of the United States.

It is expected that 65 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas will be transferred and 40 bcm per year for the balance of the contract. The companies are currently considering extension of the agreement for an additional 10 years that would end at the end of 2034.

This agreement comes in the wake of the Dec. 9 Normandy Four summit in Paris of the leaders of Russia, Ukraine, France, and Germany.  The Paris summit included the first bilateral meeting between Russia’s Vladimir Putin and Ukraine’s newly elected President Volodymyr Zelensky.  It is apparently a step toward recovery from the damage done in 2013-14 by the Obama Administration-backed pro-Nazi coup that installed Zelensky’s defeated predecessor Petro Poroshenko, and sabotaged the development of cooperative relations between the two nations.  It was reached despite unresolved claims and counter-claims that resulted from the coup.

OTHER

Lyndon LaRouche’s Vision from a Generation Ago—A World Silk Road Is the ‘Wave of the Future’

Dec. 31 (EIRNS) One generation ago, Lyndon H. LaRouche, Jr. gave an interview to “EIR Talks,” aired on both satellite and shortwave radio, on Dec. 31, 1996, and spoke of the economic crisis situation at that time, saying that the ‘Wave of the Future’ would be a world Silk Road, an expansion of his original concept of the Eurasian Land-Bridge. The exchange began with the host’s question:

Q: As a physical economist, one of your major efforts, especially since the Berlin Wall came down, has been the revival of the Eurasian Land-Bridge, part of which is the old Silk Road program. Can you tell us how Russia, China, India, and Japan, for example, would be affected by this policy, as well as the rest of Europe and Asia, in terms of their economies?

Lyndon LaRouche: Well, we’ve had quite a bit of success in propagandizing this. Parts of it were picked up by the European Union, Jacques Delors’ so-called Delors Plan, which was supposed to be part of the Maastricht Agreement, but was dropped from it.

We designed this policy of trans-Eurasian railway spine-centered development corridors of between 100 to 150 kilometers wide, that is, 50 to 75 kilometers on either side of a major trunk railway line across Eurasia, as the way of developing the great underpopulated, underdeveloped inner heartland of Asia, and, also, linking at the same time the machine tool potentiality of Western Europe, particularly centered on what we’ve called the Berlin-Vienna-Paris Triangle, to the great population centers of the Indian Ocean and East Asia regions.

Now, what’s happened in the recent period, is not only has China pushed this policy in its own way, as the Silk Road policy, heavily, but it has recently enjoyed support from India, in the meeting between the President of India and Jiang Zemin of China, who came to an agreement on India’s cooperation with China in developing its own element. This focusses very much on the issue of Iran, because Iran is the natural crossroads of Asia, which is why the British are trying to get the United States to break off our relationship to Iran, because the British are against this policy, and against China, whereas China, India, Iran, and Russia, among others, as well as Turkey, are very much for this policy, as are some of the people in the Middle East and some of the people in Southeast Asia.

So, this is the wave of the future. We are now going into the worst financial and economic collapse in all modern history, that is, the greatest rate and depth of collapse in modern history, unless we reverse it. The financial collapse is inevitable. There’s nothing you can do about it, nobody can stop that. We can simply dump the old financial system for a new one, put through some kind of new Bretton Woods arrangement, which we will have to do, if we have any sense at all.

But, on this: The Land-Bridge is the great international project which will do for the world what, in effect, Franklin Roosevelt’s administration did for the United States in finally getting us out of the Great Depression….

Not only is it in the vital interest of Eurasia, but it’s in the vital interest of the United States, as an integral part of our overall global recovery program, to get out of the mess we’re presently in.

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