EIR Daily Alert Service, FRIDAY, JANUARY 25, 2019
FRIDAY, JANUARY 25, 2019
Volume 6, Number 18
EIR Daily Alert Service
P.O. Box 17390, Washington, DC 20041-0390
- The Four Powers and Our Role
- Switzerlands Clearly Opts For New Silk Road
- Bangladesh’s Premier Encourages India to Join Belt and Road
- U.S.-Taliban Talks Extend From Two to Four Days
- Wilbur Ross Thinks China and U.S. Have ‘Fair Chance’ to Succeed at Trade Talks
- Kim Jong-Un Applauds Donald Trump’s ‘Positive Way of Thinking’ Reports Pyongyang Media
- IMF Issues Negative Outlook for the Eurozone And Singles Out Italy as a Global Risk
- German Auto Club to Look Into Diesel Emission Hoax
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| EDITORIAL The Four Powers and Our Role Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—Most Americans have not got the slightest idea of how the world has fundamentally changed. As statesman Lyndon LaRouche had long forecast, and as he has fought ceaselessly to bring this about, the Four Powers of the United States, Russia, China and India are coming forward as a unity to lead human civilization forward, and must soon be able to snuff out the British Empire and the principle of empire—hopefully forever.Russian-Chinese conflict rose to the level of undeclared military clashes in 1969 during the Cultural Revolution. But the Deng Xiaoping reform leadership was able to reach an initial border agreement with the Soviets in 1991. Then the 20-year Treaty of Good-Neighborliness and Friendly Cooperation Between the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation was signed by Presidents Jiang Zemin and Vladimir Putin in 2001. Under that treaty, as it has been continually broadened since 2001, there are not only regular meetings between the two Presidents and between the two Prime Ministers, but by now all the corresponding ministries of the two countries meet regularly. There have always been numerous disagreements between Russia and China—but in this way they are now all continually being hashed out and negotiated as fast as they arise.There is a kindred system of intergovernmental commissions between Russia and India, whose friendly relations go back to India’s independence, and have continued under all governments on both sides. India considers Russia its reliable friend, one it refuses to give up. All this provided the basis for the late Russian Prime Minister Yevgeny Primakov’s successful 1999 proposal of the Russia-India-China “Strategic Triangle,” which still exists today on its own account and as the origin of the BRICS grouping of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.China and India fought a border war in 1962, but since then, their disagreements have been much exaggerated by British and British-controlled sources who seek to play upon them. Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping met four times in 2018, most notably in a two-day, intimate, off-the-record summit in Wuhan in April. Now, media reports speculate that President Xi plans a comprehensive visit to India, at least before the Indian elections in May.The larger picture here is the acceptance of China in South Asia as a whole. Yesterday, Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed, long extremely close to India, said, “being such a big country and big economy, India should not worry about it [the Belt and Road]. Rather, they can also join, so that all the countries can benefit economically.” She also pointed to one of the problem areas on the periphery, Myanmar, stating that China, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar have already signed an agreement to establish connectivity, known as the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC). “After signing that agreement, I think there is no reason to worry about the corridor for India.”The problems at the periphery of the RIC, including Japan, Korea, and Afghanistan, point to the role of the United States under the LaRouche-influenced Presidency of Donald Trump. Rather than being the “fly in the ointment” to exacerbate problems and impede unity, the United States is now working for positive solutions there.Japanese Prime Minister Abe just concluded one of his dozens of meetings with Putin in Moscow. The two reiterated that they intend to conclude a peace treaty together while both of them are still in office. They repeated that they would work toward that treaty on the basis of the Soviet-Japanese Joint Declaration of 1956. That Declaration had set out the basis for a peace treaty. What they knew but didn’t say, was that the U.S. had forced Japan to walk out of that Joint Declaration.On the closely-related Korean file, North Korea’s Chairman Kim Jong-un expressed “great satisfaction” after reading a letter from President Donald Trump today, looking forward to their next summit.Afghanistan became an insoluble mess thanks largely to U.S. policies dictated from London. Neighboring Russia has opposed a U.S. pullout from Afghanistan unless it was first negotiated with the neighbors in India and China. So the U.S. Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad first negotiated in China, India, Pakistan and Afghanistan, to prepare for his now-ongoing negotiations with the Taliban in Qatar.The latest word is that those negotiations are still continuing on their fourth day, after originally being scheduled for only two days. It seems that they have been productive.The urgent task now is to win the United States and the Four Powers to LaRouche’s program for a Hamiltonian credit system for the United States and for cooperation of sovereign nations of the entire world. NEW GLOBAL ECONOMIC ORDER Eurasian Tour Yields Major Results for Zimbabwean President Mnangagwa Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—Despite the destabilization now taking place in Zimbabwe, President Emmerson Mnangagwa secured some real economic results from his recent tour of Eurasia that took him to Russia, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Belarus, according to the Harare daily Herald.On arrival at Harare’s airport on Jan. 21, President Mnangagwa said he has returned with “a bagful of projects.”In Russia, the “bagful” included several agreements, among them a commitment by VTB Bank (Foreign Trade Bank) to help support Zimbabwe’s debt restructuring and the financing of new projects; Russia’s Great Dyke Investments committed $267 million to immediately start production-related works on their platinum claims in Darwendale; Russia’s Alrosa, the world’s greatest diamond producer, agreed to start core operations in Zimbabwe; Russia’s Uralchem agreed to build a fertilizer and agro-chemical manufacturing plant to supply Zimbabwe and the Southern African region; the establishment of a dealership for the sale of agricultural equipment to service both Zimbabwe and the region; as well as another deal to supply 30,000 tons of wheat.In Belarus, Zimbabwe signed eight agreements. The most interesting was a grand rail and road scheme aimed at making Zimbabwe a regional transport and logistics hub that would include linking the Indian and Atlantic Oceans across Southern Africa and through Zimbabwe. The hub could be built under a tripartite arrangement involving Zimbabwe, Belarus and China. A joint venture would be registered for the project, and would involve several Southern African countries. Belarus also agreed to invest in irrigation systems, residential housing, roads which could involve China as well. They also discussed projects for the joint production and processing of beef, poultry, pork, dairy, horticulture, fruits, wheat, and maize.Azerbaijan agreed to explore cooperation in the oil and gas sector and investments by Azerbaijan’s sovereign investment funds, particularly in mining and infrastructure development.In Kazakhstan, discussions centered on cooperation in agriculture, mining, transport and logistics, industrial manufacturing and infrastructure development, among others. India’s Position as a Large and Modernizing Asian Power Mirrors that of China, Writes Analyst Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—Writing for East Asia Forum, Chris Ogden, Professor of Asian Security at Scotland’s University of St. Andrews, pointed out that despite negative views by various analysts, India-China relations are stable.He stated that differences between the two do exist in various areas, “but at their core, India-China relations rest upon several shared affinities: a goal to become a modern and developed country, a self-conception as a great power of global weight and a desire to realize a more equitable world order. These affinities emanate from each country’s domestic sphere and point to a strategic congruence that underpins their interactions.”Ogden’s analysis reflects the accumulated effects of the several 2018 meetings that took place between Indian Premier Narendra Modi and China’s President Xi Jinping. According to unconfirmed media reports, Xi will be visiting India early this year.Ogden, whose article is entitled “India and China: Two Peas in a Pod,” said India’s position as a large, developing and modernizing Asian power mirrors that of China. “China was also mistreated by major Western powers (during the Century of Humiliation) prior to the realization of the People’s Republic of China in 1949. Shared narratives about attaining full autonomy in international affairs, gaining economic and military self-sufficiency, and leading the renaissance of the region culminating in an Asian Century all underpin the common trajectory and ambition that binds these two countries together,” Ogden wrote. Switzerland Clearly Opts for New Silk Road Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—Swiss President Ueli Maurer said, after a meeting with Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan ahead of the Davos World Economic Forum, that he views the Belt and Road as offering many good opportunities for Swiss industry. In contrast to substantial restrictions which the EU has imposed against Chinese direct investments into European companies, the Swiss, which are not part of the European Union, will not do so.Maurer pointed out that the Swiss economy has greatly benefitted in the past from unrestricted access to other countries, therefore the Swiss do not fear Chinese investors and will welcome them, rather than impose restrictions on them. Maurer hinted during a state visit to China last April that he will sign a far-reaching agreement of cooperation with the Chinese.Wang Qishan turns out to be very interested in the history of Switzerland, particularly its relations with, and independence from, the House of Hapsburg—the Wilhelm Tell paradigm. The Chinese official was given a tour of the original Hapsburg castle in Aargau, yesterday, and at a reception there, exchanged views with local officials on the history of the Hapsburg Empire and the relation to the Chinese Empire 500 years ago, along the old Silk Road by land and by sea, which connection is currently revived with the New Silk Road. Bangladesh’s Premier Encourages India To Join the Belt and Road Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—In an interview with the Indian TV network CNN-News18 on Jan. 20, Bangladesh’s Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina Wazed asked India not to worry about China’s Belt and Road Initiative, but rather to join it.China, India, Bangladesh and Myanmar have already signed an agreement to establish connectivity, known as the Bangladesh-China-India-Myanmar Economic Corridor (BCIM-EC). “After signing that agreement, I think there is no reason to worry about the corridor for India,” Sheikh Hasina said, the Dhaka-based Daily Star reported.“Rather, I feel that trade will increase,” she said, and declared that all these countries would benefit from it. “So connectivity for economic development is necessary.” She thinks India can discuss this, and if there is any issue to worry about, it can be solved through bilateral and multilateral discussions.Sheikh Hasina’s statement carries a lot of weight in India because of her decades-long close relationship with New Delhi. “Being such a big country and big economy, India should not worry about it [the Belt and Road],” she said. “Rather, they can also join, so that all the countries can benefit economically.” U.S. POLITICAL & ECONOMIC U.S.-Taliban Talks Extended from Two to Four Days … and Counting Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—Al Jazeera reported today that talks between U.S. and Taliban officials in Qatar have been extended from two to four days with the two sides trying to establish a mechanism for a ceasefire in the 17-year Afghan war and open dialogue with the Afghan government.U.S. Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zalmay Khalilzad’s meeting with Taliban representatives was originally scheduled for two days, and its unexpected extension was a positive sign, according to two senior Taliban leaders in Afghanistan who have been kept informed of the progress made in Qatar, Al Jazeera reported.Al Jazeera added that during the first two days, the talks focused on a roadmap for the withdrawal of foreign forces and a guarantee that Afghanistan would not be used for hostile acts against the United States and its allies, according to one of Taliban leaders. “The mechanism for a ceasefire and ways to enter into an intra-Afghan dialogue were the two other big topics that were supposed to be discussed” on Thursday, Jan. 24,” the unnamed official told Reuters.There is no doubt that discussions in the current round are taking place at a much higher level than previous talks. One likely reason is that prior to the current meeting, Khalilzad had visited Afghanistan and its neighbors India, China, and Pakistan, and knows the views of these important regional countries on what could be, or should be, the role of the Taliban in the future set-up following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan. The Taliban are also aware that without the help of these regional countries, its role in Afghanistan will remain undefined. Wilbur Ross Thinks China and U.S. Have a ‘Fair Chance’ To Succeed in Trade Talks Next Week Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—U.S. Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said today that “I think there’s a fair chance we do get a deal,” at the Jan. 30-31 trade talks in Washington between the U.S. and China, although he added that not all disputes are likely to be resolved there, Reuters reported.“There is a very large group coming. There’s been a lot of anticipatory work done, but we’re miles and miles from getting a resolution and frankly that shouldn’t be too surprising,” Ross said in an interview with CNBC.“Trade is very complicated, there’s lots and lots of issues—not just how many soybeans and how much LNG, but even more importantly, structural reforms that we really think are needed in the Chinese economy, and then even more important than that, enforcement mechanisms and penalties for failure to adhere to whatever we agree to.”Meanwhile, today China’s Commerce Ministry said Chinese Vice Premier Liu He will hold in-depth discussions on economic and trade issues during his visit to the United States next week. “During the upcoming high-level negotiations, both sides will continue to hold in-depth talks on various economic and trade issues of mutual concern,” Gao Feng, spokesman at the Commerce Ministry, told reporters. Kim Jong-un Applauds Donald Trump’s ‘Positive Way of Thinking,’ Report Pyongyang Media Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—North Korean Chairman Kim Jong-un spoke highly of U.S. President Donald Trump, North Korean state media KCNA reported today, and expressed satisfaction over the results of talks between officials from both countries about a second summit between Kim and Trump, the South China Morning Post reported.Kim said he would trust Trump’s approach, KCNA reported, suggesting Kim is focused on the next meeting with Trump to produce results. He was quoted as saying that “we will believe in President Trump’s positive way of thinking, wait with patience and in good faith and, together with the U.S., advance step by step toward the goal to be reached by the two countries,” SCMP reported.Meanwhile, Kim has indicated to South Korean President Moon Jae-in that he would undertake a groundbreaking denuclearization measure, the South Korean daily Dong-A Ilbo reported today. The newspaper, citing an unidentified source with direct knowledge of the U.S.-North Korea situation, said the same had been made clear to President Trump during North Korean Vice Chairman Kim Yong-chol’s Washington visit last week, SCMP reported. COLLAPSING WESTERN FINANCIAL SYSTEM IMF Issues Negative Outlook for the Eurozone and Singles Out Italy as a Global Risk Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—The International Monetary Fund has revised downward growth estimates for the Eurozone, comprised of the 19 European countries that use the euro single currency. On average, GDP is slowing by 0.3% for the area. The largest correction is for Germany: down 0.6% (from +1.9% to 1.3%). Italy’s output is corrected downward by 0.4%.The IMF figures are consistent with the ongoing slowdown of the Eurozone economies and by all economic projections. However, it has a new entry among so-called “global risks”: after trade war and Brexit, comes Italy.This aspect has been ridiculed by many. Italian Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said “The IMF is wrong” and it is IMF policies that are a risk to the economy.Sen. Alberto Bagnai, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee, said that the “real news” is that IMF Managing Director Christine Lagarde “is still at her post, after all the mistakes the IMF has made in the past.” Bagnai pointed to the fact that the real cause of the coming global recession is the imbalanced structure of national economies along with “the insane monetary policy adopted during the crisis.” Oxfam, which produced a report on shocking global economic inequality, shouldn’t be surprised by those results, he said, when “every nation in the world is told: export and reduce wages.”Deputy Claudio Borghi, who chairs the Chamber of Deputies Budget Committee, said that the slowdown of the economy in the Eurozone might lead to a higher deficit for Italy, but in that case, “this should be the stimulus for a more expansionist policy, not for cuts in the budget.” Borghi is said to be confident that when time comes, there will be a different political situation in the EU. German Auto Club To Look Into Diesel Emissions Hoax Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—Sparked by yesterday’s memorandum of 107 German physicians challenging the mainstream greenie doctrine that diesel car emissions are causing mortal lung disease, the German Automobile Club, ADAC, announced that it will mandate an independent survey to determine how strong the scientific evidence really is behind this insane doctrine.German physicians put out a memo, signed by the former head of the German pneumologists association Dieter Köhler, saying there were no data reliably blaming lung disease on diesel exhaust particulates and nitrous oxides, compared to the reliable data on the danger of tobacco smoking. Their data show that just two months of smoking produces more particulates for the smoker, than a non-smoker (including diesel auto drivers) receives in a lifetime.The emissions doctrine is being used to justify banning diesel cars from urban centers entirely. Hamburg, Stuttgart, and Essen, already have such bans in effect, and at least 50 more cities may follow suit this coming spring. Millions of daily commuters are hit by this insanity.“If citizens are affected by driving bans, they must be assured that the accepted [emissions] data are scientifically sound,” ADAC Vice President Ulrich Klaus Becker said in Munich last night. Also, Prof. Matthias Klingner of the Fraunhofer Institute for Transport in Dresden took to the media, with the hint that the “fine dust” which greenies claim is made by diesel car emissions, actually has been around on the planet for millions of years, and that it has played, among other things, a crucial component of cloud formation. European Union’s ‘Sophia’ Refugees Mission Dead in the Water Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—The EU “Sophia” mission to rescue refugee boats in the Mediterranean is blowing apart and most likely won’t be renewed at the end of March, after the German government announced it will not replace the frigate Augsburg as planned.From Davos, German Defense Minister Ursula von der Leyen accused the Italian Navy, which has command of the operation, of sending the German ship to the “remotest corners of the Mediterranean” in recent months, away from the refugee routes, leaving the vessel with nothing to do.“It is now important for us that Brussels makes clear what the task of the mission is,” Von der Leyen stated. The EU Commission made it known that since “Sophia” is under Italian command, that Italy has the right to end it, if it so chooses.From Rome, Interior Minister and Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini responded to Von der Leyen that “if someone wants to hurt us by pulling out of the mission, they’re doing us a favor.” The Italian government is not happy about Sophia, because regardless of which national vessel rescues refugees, the migrants are still dumped in Italian ports, for which Italy still gets no aid.The Sophia mission (officially named EUNAVFOR MED) is composed of seven ships from as many EU countries: Italy, Germany, France, Spain, U.K., Slovenia, and Belgium. So far, only Germany has complained about its vessel’s deployment.Meanwhile, non-governmental organizations have attempted to resurrect their own operation, but Italy is denying them access to its ports. The NGOs’ parallel rescue operation includes a telephone number which refugee vessels (or traffickers) call once they are at sea, thus bypassing the EU multinational rescue operation under Italian command. OTHER Chinese Vice President Uses Davos Speech To Give a Sense of China’s History Jan. 24 (EIRNS)—Chinese Vice President Wang Qishan gave a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos yesterday. Taking as his point of departure President Xi Jinping’s address to Davos two years ago, he re-emphasized the Chinese policy that President Xi had laid out on Jan. 17, 2017. Wang tried to give a sense of China’s history since the founding of the People’s Republic 70 years ago, depicting first the 5,000-year history of China which moved from a position of great prestige until the closing of its doors in the 18th century.During the course of that history, Wang explained, “China has been buffeted by many wars and catastrophes.” With the founding of the P.R.C., China regained its independence and its unity. Without referring specifically to the more difficult periods for China since then, he emphasized that China has in this process “freed minds from utopian thinking…. Four or five generations have gone through many difficulties since that time, but have succeeded in transforming an agricultural nation into the world’s largest industrial producer…. The advances in China in the past 70 years are not a godsend, nor a gift from others. Rather, they are made by the Chinese people through vision, hard work, courage, reform and innovation. We want to see China regain its rightful position in the world.”But while “developing itself, China wants to work with others,” he said. Instead of fighting over a limited pie, “we should work together to make the pie bigger and find new ways to share it more equitably. Trying to blame others won’t solve any problems.” Wang also stated that China faced many challenges in raising the level of its people to a “moderately prosperous society. We reject the practices of the strong bullying the weak and self-claimed supremacy.” While developing itself, China also wishes to work with all countries for common development and a community with a shared future for mankind.He declared that China’s plan is to expand economic opportunities. “What we need to do is make the pie bigger while looking for ways to share it in a more equitable way,” he insisted. “The last thing we should do is to stop making the pie and just engage in a futile debate on how to divide it.”As for the ongoing U.S.-China trade conflict, the Jan. 24 Asia Times quoted Wang that “the Chinese and U.S. economies are mutually indispensable, so their relations must be mutually beneficial and win-win.” Reach us at eirdailyalert@larouchepub.com or call 1-571-293-0935 |
