6.5% Growth Forecast For China

Geraci: It Is Silly To Talk about Chinese Economic “Downturn”

Jan. 10 (EIRNS) — A 6.5% growth forecast for the Chinese economy
this year means a larger increase in value than the 6.8% of last
year, Italian Undersecretary for Economic Development Michele
Geraci stressed in an interview with Sky TV 24 Jan. 7.
Polemicizing against those who talk about a downturn in the
Chinese economy, Geraci said: “Today we are speaking about the
Chinese economy which is slowing down, as if there were a
recession. In reality, the rate of growth will go from 6.8/6.9%
to 6.5% and maybe 6.2% next year, which are very high rates of
growth anyway. Therefore, be careful in saying that the Chinese
economy is in a downturn, because, instead, it’s growing.
“Furthermore, in absolute terms this year’s 6.5% is worth
more than the 6.8% of last year, because if we look at the value,
every year China grows an average of 1-1.5 trillion, almost as
much as Italy’s entire GDP. Every year, China grows in absolute
terms as much as the entire GDP of a medium-size European
country. This because, while the growth rate physiologically
decreases, it’s starting from a higher basis.”
Geraci also downplays the “trade war” narrative pushed by
free-traders to explain some bad economic data, such as for
instance the drop in Apple’s sales in China. Apple’s sales
decline in China is due to the growth of domestic producers,
which are as good as, or even better than Apple, Geraci
suggested. Also, social media in China is expressing anger over
the western attack on Huawei, leading to an undeclared boycott of
westen competition, including Apple.
And it is not true that raising tariffs increases the trade
deficit by increasing the cost of imports, [as some crazy
free-traders claim]: The EU has higher import tariffs than the
United States and has balanced trade; the U.S.A. with its lower
tariffs has a huge deficit.